Thursday Night Football – Miami at Buffalo (-11.5 / 50)

Thursday Night Football: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-11.5 / 50)

By Russ Culver

When the Miami Dolphins visit Highmark Stadium to face the Buffalo Bills on September 18, it will be an early season crossroads for both teams. Buffalo enters the matchup 2-0, while Miami sits at 0-2 and already feels the pressure of avoiding a three-game skid. The Bills look to extend their momentum and assert divisional dominance, while the Dolphins search for answers on both sides of the ball.

The Bills’ offense revolves around Josh Allen, who has been sharp through two games. His dual-threat ability, paired with improved ground production from James Cook, gives Buffalo balance and unpredictability. Play-action and RPO concepts have opened the playbook, and the offensive line has done enough to keep defenses guessing. On defense, Buffalo has consistently generated pressure and limited explosive plays, a hallmark of Sean McDermott’s system. Their ability to get off the field on third down has been a difference-maker early in the season.

Miami’s start has been hampered by injuries and inconsistent execution. Tua Tagovailoa has weapons like Tyreek Hill, but protection issues and a lack of sustained rushing success have stalled drives. The run game flashes potential but too often disappears, forcing Miami into predictable passing downs. Defensively, the Dolphins have struggled to stop the run and generate a consistent pass rush, leaving their secondary vulnerable. Against Buffalo’s versatile attack, those flaws could prove costly.

Recent history favors Buffalo, who has strung together multiple wins in the series. Playing in Orchard Park offers the Bills another edge. Even in September, the setting is often damp and cool, conditions that favor a physical style of football. Under the primetime spotlight, Buffalo has typically defended its home field with confidence.

Protecting Tua: Miami must keep Tagovailoa upright and involve Hill early to avoid falling behind quickly. Establishing the Run: Buffalo will look to ride James Cook to create balance and force Miami into third-and-long situations. Defensive Matchups: Watch the Bills’ front against Miami’s offensive line and the Dolphins’ secondary against Buffalo’s tight ends and receivers. Red-zone execution could be the deciding factor.

Prediction: Buffalo 30-17. The Bills control tempo with their run game, while the defense forces enough stops to keep Miami off rhythm.

Betting Outlook

Spread: Buffalo opened around -11.5 and is sitting between -11.5 and -13. Total: The over/under has climbed from 48.5 to 49.5. Moneyline: Buffalo -765, reflecting win probabilities above 80%.

Expert picks heavily favor Buffalo both straight up and against the spread. Public money has followed suit, leaning strongly toward the Bills. Miami’s defensive lapses—allowing 33 points to both New England and Indianapolis—have fueled expectations for another tough outing.

Turnovers: Miami cannot afford giveaways. Buffalo has played clean football so far. Game Pace: A slow, physical tempo benefits the Bills. A faster pace with explosive plays would be Miami’s best shot. Injuries: Miami cornerbacks Storm Duck and Ethan Bonner are questionable. Buffalo’s Matt Milano and Ed Oliver are also on the injury report, but the Bills’ depth could soften the blow.

Spread: Buffalo -11.5 remains attractive given their strengths and Miami’s struggles. Moneyline: Safe but offers little return. Over/Under: Lean under if you trust Buffalo’s defense to limit Miami. The over has appeal if you expect late-game scoring or turnovers. Props: James Cook rushing yards or touchdowns are strong options. Tyreek Hill reception totals are riskier but carry upside.

If Miami can pressure Allen into mistakes and capitalize on short fields, they could cover or even threaten an upset. However, Buffalo’s composure and balance make that scenario less likely.

Buffalo is in position to extend their winning streak against Miami with another double-digit victory. Backing the Bills against the spread looks like the best play, with Cook props and selective totals bets offering additional angles for sharper bettors.